Great Power Rivalry? China, Russia and the Quest for Status in World Politics

• In Event: Status and the Rise of China

Abstract

China and Russia have emerged as central concerns for America’s post-cold War foreign policy. The US Department of Defense has described great power competition as the most important threat to US security. The Trump administration is concerned that China is providing billions of dollars in loans to countries Africa, Europe, and Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance its geopolitical influence while burdening the recipients with debt. Russia has displayed sophisticated new nuclear weapons, deployed a new intermediate-range missile, and utilized social media to exacerbate political divisions within the United States. Why are China and Russia challenging US hegemony? Has China abandoned its “peaceful rise” strategy? This question is important for both US policy and IR theory. Understanding China’s and Russia’s foreign policy requires analyzing their status concerns. Contrary to realism, increase in Chinese and Russian capabilities is insufficient to explain their recent turn to assertiveness. Social Identity Theory (SIT) allows us to predict what strategies states use to enhance their status through structural variables such as the stability and legitimacy of the status hierarchy and historical identities. The United States should encourage these aspiring powers to seek status in soft, more creative areas, whereas humiliations may arouse a backlash in the form of hostile and belligerent behavior.

Authors

• Deborah Welch Larson, UCLA Political Science Department

• Alexei Shevchenko, California State University, Fullerton