Day and Night: Dynamic Racial Contexts and Political Preferences

• In Event: Homeownership, Residence, and Political Behavior

Abstract

Most research on the relationship between context and political outcomes use "static" measures of racial context. That is, in most studies, researchers measure the racial composition of a person's neighborhood -- be it Census tract, zip code, or county -- using information about the resident population. Yet, we know that few contexts are static, and that the demographic characteristics of an area change throughout the day as people come and go -- from and to work, from and to business districts, etc. In this paper, we focus on how contexts differ across day and night. We focus on how the working population differs from the residential population, and examine whether indivduals living in contexts with more diversity during the day relative to night are distinct in their voting behavior and in political preferences from those living in more racially static contexts. Our argument is that individuals living in areas with racial dissimilarity across day and night populations will be more likely to support Republican candidates and relatively more racially conservative than those who live in areas of relative racial homogeneity. We suggest that these differences stem reflect a "get off my lawn" effect: residents dislike that "undesirable" racial minorities come into the neighborhood every day for work. This kind of daytime migration has the effect of increasing conservatism, in voting and in attitudes, among residents.To test our theory, we use new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and calculate the percentage of Blacks who "work" in each zip code, and the percentage of Blacks who "live" in each zip code. These two statistics allow us to create a measure of racial dissimilarity: the extent to which the context is more diverse during the day, relative to night (and vice-versa). We merge these data with the 2010-2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and show that respondents who live in areas with more blacks during the day relative to night are less likely to vote Democrat in presidential and congressional elections, and are marginally more racially resentful and supportive of more restrictive affirmative action policies. These findings contribute to a growing important conversation considering the role of context in shaping political attitudes and behaviors. Our new measure add an important, yet under-explored dimension in contextual measurement strategies.

Authors

• Brian T. Hamel, University of California, Los Angeles

• Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta, University of California, Los Angeles