Identity Politics Cost Us the Election: Gendered Effects in Electoral Narratives

• In Event: Identity, Populism, and the Gender Gap in Vote Choice

Abstract

How does a narrative about the role of identity politics in a recent election influence voters’ interpretation of the next election? Do voters’ reactions depend on their own social identity? In an original survey experiment conducted shortly after the 2018 congressional midterm elections, white Democratic respondents were randomly assigned to read a vignette that either simply noted Democratic losses in the 2016 and 2018 elections or explicitly attributed them to the party’s focus on minority issues. Using conjoint analysis, we find that the identity politics message had an asymmetrical effect on men and womens’ attitudes toward prospective 2020 presidential candidates. Men in the control were already significantly more likely than women to believe that the Democratic party has focused too much on identity politics, and the treatment did little to alter their preferences for future candidates. Rather, the treatment reinforced their preferences by producing a perception of the Democratic party as being even more ideologically liberal than their ideal. On the other hand, women who received the treatment were twice as likely to believe that the Democratic party has focused too much on identity politics than women in the control. Treated women’s preferences shifted away from female candidates explicitly looking to address gender and racial inequities, to male candidates emphasizing generalist policies. In other words, while framing identity politics as electorally costly caused men to change their perceptions, it caused women to change their preferences. Additionally, the identity politics message caused the initially distinctive preferences of women to become indistinguishable from mens’. This is consistent with previous literature suggesting that although women have divergent political preferences from men, they lack a strong politicized gender identity. Our results imply that even when white Democratic women do assert a politicized gender identity, they may quickly be derailed by negative critiques that persuade them to take up the preferences of their male counterparts for the ostensible benefit of the party as a whole. This implies that although white Democratic voters have expressed growing support for the descriptive representation of women, there continues to be relatively weak commitment –– or perhaps even resistance –– to their substantive representation.

Authors

• Seth E. Masket, University of Denver

• Pavielle Haines, University of Denver