Evaluating the Cumulative Effects of Negotiations in Civil War Resolution

• In Event: Innovations in Measuring Strategic Interactions During Violent Conflict

Abstract

We evaluate how prior negotiations influence future negotiations. In particular, we assert that disputants learn about each other through these negotiations, using revealed information about trustworthiness to influence the frequency and effectiveness of future negotiations. Specifically, we hypothesize that as a state-rebel dyad’s history of negotiations becomes more positive, new negotiations are more likely to (a) occur and (b) produce favorable outcomes. We test our expectations on monthly negotiation data on civil conflicts in Africa.

Authors

• Elizabeth J. Menninga, University of Iowa

• Alyssa Prorok