Insurgents' Power to Hurt and Civil War Duration

• In Event: The Political Economy of Internal Conflict

Abstract

What determines insurgents’ ability to hurt a state economically? We argue that the answer depends on where insurgents operate geographically and which sectors are the most important for the economy. We first use data on conflict location and sectoral exports to show that urban rebellions mainly hurt manufacturing, whereas rural rebellions mainly hurt agriculture and mining. We then examine the effect of rebels' ability to hurt on conflict duration: we test the hypothesis that conflicts that occur in areas corresponding to a country’s key exports increase the likelihood that the war ends more quickly.

Authors

• Tyson Chatagnier, University of Houston

• Kerim Can Kavakli, Bocconi University