Sea Level Rise, Property Value, and Growth Machines

• In Event: Policy Feedback, Conflict and Process Tracing

Abstract

In this paper we seek to understand the role of city-based “growth machines” in responding to the threats to local property values posed by climate change-induced sea level rise. We hypothesize that growth machine responses lie along a continuum. At one end of the continuum, a proactive growth machine can double down on its initial land investment and invest further in things such as bulkheads, sea walls, flood gates, and water pumps. At the other end, a growth machine might simply cut its losses, disband, and cease further investment. There are most likely tipping points along this continuum in which investments or disinvestments become mutually reinforcing, thereby leading to either positive or negative “path dependent” feedback loops. For instance, if enough growth machine members decide to invest in the necessary infrastructure to protect against seal level rise – or, more likely, to compel governments to invest in that infrastructure – those investments send positive signals to other investors. As investment begets more investment, the city government has more funds for infrastructure, thereby reinforcing the positive investment climate. As an initial exploratory study we focus on a single case, Miami, to specify how we are defining a growth machine and how we can construct a model of growth machine responses to sea level rise that could be applied to other cities.

Authors

• Richardson Dilworth, Drexel University

• Sara Hughes, University of Toronto