The Domino Effect: Proximity-Based Analysis of Civil Resistance Outcomes

• In Event: The Dynamics of Civil Resistance

Abstract

Populist movements often take the form of civil resistance campaigns in order to invoke change in politically stagnant situations. Studies of contentious politics have extensively analyzed the major variables that impact civil resistance processes and outcomes. Nevertheless, despite being recognized as a global phenomenon, little attention has been given to the geographic aspect of civil resistance. In this paper, I examine the effect of proximity between countries that experience populist movements within the same year on civil resistance outcomes. Using ArcGIS Pro, I apply forest-based classification and regression on the Nonviolent and Violent Campaign Outcomes Dataset (NAVCO 2.1) which documents major civil resistance campaigns around the globe from 1946-2013. Geographic Information Systems provide an accurate definition of closest neighbors, a precise measure of distances between countries, and hence, a reliable estimate of proximity. My results suggest that adding a proximity variable to a non-spatial civil resistance model improves the predictive accuracy of the model. The results also demonstrate the importance of proximity as one of the top variables that explain civil resistance campaign outcomes. My findings provide supporting evidence to concepts such as the domino effect and waves of democratization and highlight the importance of the spatial dimension in explaining and predicting populism-motivated political events. Future research can extend these findings to examine the regional and temporal aspects of proximity and their effect on the global diffusion of populist movements.

Author

• Soha Hammam, Claremont Graduate University