Information Ops Increase Security Cooperation & Support for Reintegration

• In Event: Public Attitudes and Political Behavior in Times of Conflict

Abstract

Information operations are considered a central element of modern warfare, yet there remains little, if any, systematic evidence of their effectiveness. Matching military surveys from Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan with newly declassified intelligence records, we demonstrate that civilians exposed to the governments information campaign results in more reported roadside bombs, which in turn increased bomb neutralizations and weapons depot seizures. A geographic quasi-experiment confirms the robustness of these findings. Using additional military surveys, we show that messaging exposure increases tolerance for Taliban reintegration and is affected by the frequency of messaging and targets’ participation in local institutions. In short, information campaigns can lead to welfare-enhancing attitudinal and behavioral changes in an adversarial environment and can substantially improve battlefield and peacebuilding outcomes.

Authors

• Austin Wright, University of Chicago

• Konstantin Sonin, New Economic School/CEFIR