The Impact of War on Voting Behavior? The Case of Ukraine

• In Event: Public Attitudes and Political Behavior in Times of Conflict

Abstract

What are the effects of conflict on voting behavior? While scholars have examined the effects of engagement in war on sustained incumbent support, and the shift from violence to voting, few have been able to examine the effects of an escalating war over the course of two election cycles. Employing original panel survey data (which we combine with geographic data accounting for proximity to conflict as well as data on the numbers of war-related deaths, IDP residents, and men deployed to the front per geographic point) this paper assesses the extent to which factors related to the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine influenced voting in the 2014 presidential and parliamentary elections and weighs them against the influence of factors that more commonly influence voting. We do not find that factors related to the conflict drive electoral behavior, nor do we find conclusive evidence that any change in voter behavior is mediated by proximity to conflict zone. Instead we find that economic security and/or feeling that one is represented by the selection of parties/candidates on the ballot is more significant in driving both rallying around the incumbent and leaving the electoral arena altogether.

Authors

• Olga Onuch, University of Manchester

• Henry E. Hale, George Washington University

• Timothy J. Colton, Harvard University