Bureaucratic Promotion in China: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment

• In Event: Bureaucratic Effectiveness in Comparative Context

Abstract

Which dimension is more important in determining the promotion of local bureaucrats in China? Do government officials from different ranks, work area, and government level differ systematically in which dimension they prioritize? While much academic work has been devoted to understanding bureaucratic promotion in China, most studies analyze the process in a one-dimensional framework that can neither assess the relative importance of different considerations in promoting officials, nor whether relative importance varies across leaders with different personal and professional characteristics. In previous research, promotion channels are measured using biographical data, survey questions directly asking respondents’ perceived promotion channels or media coverage. However, above research design suffers from measurement error or social desirability bias. Also, conventional survey typically focuses on one factor at a time. This might be problematic in the multidimensional context of bureaucratic promotion.
This article employs a novel conjoint experiment design covering 550 middle-level government cadres in China, which asks them to select between two hypothetical candidates as their deputy, randomly varying several characteristics. This work proposes a theoretical model of three selection criteria that government officials employ to determine whom to promote: ability, connection, and identification. This allows us to compare on a common scale how different dimensions affect the government leaders’ political decision of personnel appointment. This paper unpacks the multidimensionality of elite preference in the local-level bureaucratic promotion.

Authors

• Xufeng Zhu, Tsinghua University

• Juan Du, Tsinghua University