Systemic Pressures on Leaders in Civil Wars

• In Event: International Dimensions of Elite Decision-Making in Civil Wars

Abstract

How do international pressures shape the decision-making of reform-minded leaders in states experiencing civil war? The international relations literature on decision-making examines internal or domestic pressures on leaders. Similarly, the prevailing hypotheses in the civil wars literature trend toward internal pressures and microfoundations. But leaders of states in civil wars experience significant international pressure over choices. This paper compares the experiences of Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Central African President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. What were the conditions that President Sirleaf faced that enabled a peaceful and democratic transition out of violence in Liberia? What are the pressures that prevent President Touadéra from moving the Central African Republic out of violence? Based on interviews with the leaders themselves, as well as a variety of other primary and secondary sources, this paper identifies the presidents’ goals for reform and contrasts them with the goals of important external actors: the international financial institutions, the United Nations peacekeeping missions, neighboring states, and key great powers. It asks the Presidents directly how and under what circumstances international assistance enabled or undermined their goals for peace.

Author

• Lise Morje Howard, Georgetown University