Civil War Diffusion through Military Intervention: Syria and Lebanon

• In Event: The Evolution of US Military Interventions and State-building Projects

Abstract

How, when and why do civil wars in one country result in violence spreading to neighboring states? We present a model of how military intervention in a civil war by an actor in a neighboring country may incentivize civil war participants to expand their military operations into that neighboring state. To assess our argument we use data on attacks by Syrian rebel groups inside Lebanon in 2013-14. Shortly after Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah officially declared its involvement in Syria fighting for the government, rebels in Syria began a campaign of terrorist attacks inside Lebanon. We show that attacks on civilians primarily targeted Shia civilians living in Hezbollah-controlled areas, and present evidence that the bomb campaign represents a strategy of coercion to force Hezbollah out of the war in Syria.

Authors

• Nils Hagerdal, Tufts University

• Peter Krause, Boston College