The Long-Run Consequences of Destruction: The 1968 Washington Civil Disturbances

• In Event: Land Use Policies, Local Boundaries, and Neighborhood Inequalities

Abstract

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. in 1968 led to unrest in a number of American cities. The civil disturbances in Washington, D.C. were particularly severe. They caused significant destruction through large swaths of the city, particularly along the main business corridors in African-American neighborhoods, while leaving thirteen people dead and over a thousand injured. Washington lost 25% of its population over the next three decades, and has only recently started growing again. What is the long-run impact of severe property damage on the damaged property itself and on its neighbors? Previous work has mixed findings on the impact of destruction of a long-lived capital asset. In one view, this is a chance to reinvest, leapfrog, and abandon a downward path; in the other, this is long-lived capital that will not be replaced, with negative consequences. We use newly digitized archival and survey data to trace out the impact of the disturbances on real estate prices, business activity, and population dynamics during the subsequent half century. We focus in particular on hyperlocal variation driven by plausibly exogenous differences in damage to structures and businesses along the aforementioned corridors. Our preliminary findings suggest that destructive effects dominated initially, but convergence has been rapid in more recent years.

Authors

• Leah Brooks, McGill University

• Jonathan Rose, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

• Daniel Shoag, Harvard University

• Stan Antonius Veuger, American Enterprise Institute