Northern Irish Citizens’ Preferences on Border arrangements after Brexit

• In Event: Conflict Management Institutions in Post-Conflict Governance

Abstract

A border with a reduced physical infrastructure was central to the Northern Irish peace process and enabled the development of cross-border economic ties. One possible consequence of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is the re-introduction of physical border barriers. Such changes have implications for the economic costs borne by Northern Irish citizens, their perceptions of security and the larger peace process. Yet identifying how much difference multidimensional border arrangements make to citizens’ preferences is problematic using standard survey methods. To address this issue, this paper analyses the results of a survey of Northern Irish residents fielded in May 2018. It estimates the relative importance of different attributes of the border to citizens and simulates levels of popular support for different packages of attributes. We find a high degree of consensus among Northern Irish citizens on the need to avoid the costs of invasive border checks; their preferences differ on the location of border controls. Despite these differences, we identify a range of border arrangements that Northern Irish citizens can agree upon, suggesting that the current political stalemate on the border issue does not reflect deep societal divisions but elite politics.

Authors

• Laura Sudulich, University of Kent

• Edward Morgan-Jones, University of Kent

• Neophytos Loizides

• Feargal Cochrane, University of Lancaster