Who Supports a Nuclear Umbrella? Exploring Citizen Attitudes toward Deterrence

• In Event: International Survey Experiments on Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

Traditional research on extended nuclear deterrence theorizes that states with advanced nuclear technology often forgo building nuclear weapons because a stronger nuclear state agrees to provide a ‘nuclear umbrella’ to ensure their security. Because a nuclear state has extended this security guarantee to its non-nuclear ally, the latter has few incentives to develop nuclear weapons (given the economic costliness, scientific expertise, and potential controversy associated with their development). Yet, history has shown that not all such guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence are credible. Even when a nuclear state enacts treaties with a non-nuclear ally pledging protection or places nuclear weapons upon its territory as a deterrent, it sometimes does not follow through with its security guarantees during crises or war. Extending this research, little is known about how much ordinary citizens of non-nuclear states believe in the credibility of a nuclear patron’s pledges of extended nuclear deterrence. Under what conditions do citizens question the credibility of the nuclear umbrella? Which citizens are more (or less) likely to voice such attitudes? Utilizing an original, nationally-representative survey of over 2000 respondents from the Middle East, this study addresses these questions with evidence from Morocco, a country with advanced nuclear technology with close military alliances with two stronger nuclear states, the United States and France. To summarize its key findings, the survey shows that over 61 and 52 percent of Moroccans, respectively, question the credibility of a U.S. or French nuclear umbrella. Moreover, these attitudes do not aggregate equally amongst citizens, with female and nationalist citizens more likely to believe in the credibility of foreign-provided nuclear umbrellas. Citizens who support Islamists and have had contact with French people, by contrast, are less likely to question a French-provided umbrella.

Authors

• Matt J. Buehler, University of Tennessee

• Arjun Banerjee, University of Tennessee, Knoxville