Why Some Prime Ministers Serve Longer than Others

• In Event: Intra-Party Politics and Decision-Making

Abstract

The importance of prime ministers in parliamentary democracies is unchallenged. While there are many studies of government survival, prime ministerial survival is by far not as well studied. I provide a framework to study prime ministerial survival. I argue that prime minister replacements by rival parties (inter-party politics) are governed by factors unlike those that drive replacements by the prime minister party (intra-party politics). I show evidence for this claim using competing risk models and data from 20 Western democracies in the period 1951-2014. I find that factors that decrease rival party replacement risk (e.g., PM party is largest party in parliament), increase PM party replacement risk and vice versa. The findings have major implications for the study of governments, prime ministers and political representation.

Author

• Roni Lehrer