Pressing Pause: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires during Civil War

• In Event: Civil War Dynamics

Abstract

Why do belligerents enter into a ceasefire during civil conflict? A ceasefire is a formal or informal arrangement between belligerents to suspend hostilities from a specific point in time. All conflicts end with some form of ceasefire. Yet despite the pivotal role that ceasefires play in the peacemaking process, we know little about why or when actors choose to enter into a ceasefire with their opponent. Building on a bargaining framework, we develop an argument that derives the key conditions under which ceasefires are most likely to occur. We argue that actors have incentives to enter into a ceasefire when they seek to demonstrate commitment to a peace process (e.g. Northern Ireland), deceive an opponent in order to gain a battlefield advantage (e.g. Syria), or limit the costs associated with ongoing conflict (e.g. Liberia). We test our claims using a new global data set that captures all ceasefires during civil conflict from 1989-2018. The preliminary results provide strong support for our claims.

Authors

• Govinda Clayton, ETH Zurich

• Siri Aas Rustad, Peace Research Institute Oslo

• Håvard Strand, PRIO

• Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)