Perceived Competence and Policy Disagreement Explain Voting in Local Elections

• In Event: Homeownership, Residence, and Political Behavior

Abstract

We present a model of informed deference to explain non-voting among active registrants. The theoretical perspective argues that forgoing voting may be a form of deference, similar to deference exercised in many non-political domains, in which we allow individuals who we perceive agree with us and believe are better informed to make decisions on our behalf. Novel survey data of these perceptions matched to administrative records of participation show voters who sit out local elections (1) misperceive those who do vote as agreeing with them on certain salient local policy dimensions and (2) both perceive themselves as, and are objectively, less informed about local politics. These survey measures also explain the individual-level decision to participate. Although our data speak directly to (non) participation in local elections, the model has potential applicability to explaining abstention in other less salient contests. We identify implications of this finding for strategies to increase participation and create a more representative electorate.

Authors

• David J. Hendry, London School of Economics

• Daniel R. Biggers, University of California, Riverside

• Alan Gerber, Yale University

• Gregory Huber, Yale University