Armed & In Office: Why Violent Parties Succeed in Democratic Elections

• In Event: Rebel Governance, Legitimacy, and Civilian Behavior

Abstract

Existing research investigates why political parties engage in violence in democracies. However, few studies systematically examine why such parties fare well in some contexts, but struggle to muster electoral support in others. Utilizing a new dataset for 101 electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, as well as existing survey, and original archival and interview data, this study suggests votes for armed parties are generated by the presence or deepening of a security crisis. Within Northern Ireland, increases in state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against Catholic civilians generated marked increases in local support for Provisional Sinn Féin (PSF), the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA’s) political party; so did vigilante attacks by the PIRA on criminals. Such violence better explains local fluctuations in PSF’s share of the Catholic/Nationalist vote than economic grievances, inter-communal electoral competition, or the balance of power between the PIRA and the state.

Author

• MaryBeth E. Altier, New York University