The Diffusion of Precision Strike

• In Event: Diffusion of Military Innovation: Causes and Consequences

Abstract

What explains the spread of the modern precision strike complex? After the publicized use of precision strike weapons by the United States in the First Gulf War, analysts predicted that precision strike weapons like cruise missiles, enablers like satellites, and platforms like submarines would spread rapidly around the world. In fact, the diffusion of these capabilities has happened much slower than analysts initially predicted. What explains this variation? Most of what we know about proliferation comes from the study of nuclear weapons, which may be a special case. This paper draws on a novel dataset tracking country-level acquisition of eight aspects of the precision strike complex from 1990-2017, testing theories about the relevance of security concerns, domestic politics, status seeking, and technical capability to better understand why and how elements of the precision strike complex have spread. The results have relevance for both academic research and public policy.

Authors

• Michael Horowitz, University of Pennsylvania

• Joshua Schwartz, University of Pennsylvania