Making Trade Electorally Salient: Trade-Related Campaign Advertising in the U.S.

• In Event: Political Consequences of Localized Trade Shocks in the United States

Abstract

Does anti-trade election rhetoric fuel backlash against globalization? Current political economy research compares economic self-interest and socio-cultural factors as drivers of trade preferences, and relies on surveys and survey experiments. Absent is systematic consideration of how politicians strategically vilify trade to stimulate nationalist sentiments and galvanize voters. Using televised political advertising data in Congressional and Presidential elections between 2010 and 2014, I estimate the effect of candidate and constituency characteristics on a candidate’s decision to air anti-trade ads. I then investigate how changes in the number of trade-related advertising impact Americans’ opinion on trade, by matching counties by their exposure to Chinese import shocks and using a difference-in-difference strategy. This study sheds a new light on economic microfoundations of populism by showing how nativist politicians exploit issues of economic globalization for domestic electoral purposes.

Author

• Aycan Katitas, University of Virginia