The Race to the Base

• In Event: Formal Models of Domestic and International Politics

Abstract

We study multi-district legislative elections between two office-seeking parties when the election pits a relatively strong party against a weaker party; when each party faces uncertainty about how voter preferences will evolve during the campaign; and, when each party cares not only about winning a majority, but also about its share of seats in the event that it holds majority or minority status. When the initial imbalance favoring one party is small, each party targets the median voter in the median district, in pursuit of a majority. When the imbalance is moderate, the advantaged party continues to hold the centre-ground, but the disadvantaged party retreats to target its core supporters; it does so to fortify its minority share of seats in
the likely event that it fails to secure a majority. Finally, when the imbalance is large, the advantaged party advances toward its opponent, raiding its moderate supporters in pursuit of an outsized majority.

Authors

• Peter Buisseret, University of Chicago

• Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

• Sinem Hidir, University of Warwick