Blue, Red, and Green: Polarization, Demographic Change, and Sustainability

• In Event: The Nationalization of Politics: Evidence across Cities, Regions, and Nations

Abstract

In a series of articles, Walter Russell Mead has theorized that the 20th century ‘blue social model,’ which was founded on comprehensive economic regulations and strong employment in the public sector, imposes highly differentiated costs and benefits in an increasingly post-industrial setting across class, race/ethnicities, and geography. The expectation is that middle class households, especially those with children in the home, increasingly will sort themselves out of jurisdictions that are committed to the ‘blue social model’ and into jurisdictions organized around conservative issues of schooling, families, and faith; whereas high and low SES households will increasingly concentrate into places with commitments to liberal policy agendas, generous public benefits, and high taxes. In this paper, we test the hypothesis of household sorting across approximately 1900 municipalities located throughout the United States as a function of the ‘blue social model’, with reference in particular to policies focused on sustainability and climate change. We utilize a rich data set on adoption of sustainability measures by municipalities to test the hypothesis that these demographic changes are producing a growing divergence in the types of public policies implemented across jurisdictions. Data for the paper are drawn from US Census sources, David Leip’s US Election Atlas tables on presidential voting by place, and the International City/County Management Association 2015 Sustainability survey of municipalities.

Authors

• Lapo Salucci, University of Denver

• Ken Bickers, University of Colorado, Boulder