Social Sources of Support for the Military: Experimental Evidence from Tunisia

• In Event: Survey Research in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Who supports the military? We address this question on an empirical basis drawing on experimental evidence from Tunisia. Existing public opinion data across the Middle East usually produce figures of around 90 percent trust in the armed forces. Even if we accept that support for the military is high, such figures very likely are shaped by preference falsification. A list experiment embedded in a representative survey in Tunisia allows us to more accurately measure military support. When asked directly, 77% of Tunisians say the military has a good or very good influence on the way things are going in their country, but only 37% agree in a list experiment. All social groups appear to be overstating their support for the military, though preference falsification appears to be highest among Islamists and lowest among former military service members. Moreover, we find that both supporters and critics of the military falsify their preferences, suggesting that there are different biases at work. The fact that we find discrepancies in support for the military even in the relatively open political context of Tunisia suggests that similar exercises would probably uncover even more significant divergences in other cases in the Middle East. These empirical findings have significant implications for the study of civil-military relations and democratic consolidation more broadly, for preference falsification appears to be a prominent holdover from authoritarian rule.

Authors

• Holger Albrecht, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa

• Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary

• Kevin Koehler, University of Leiden