Trump's Approval Ratings: Does the Standard Model Generalize?

• In Event: Responses to the Trump Administration

Abstract

Donald J. Trump has experienced the lowest average approval ratings of any president since polling began. The standard model forecasts that a strong economy should resulting in strong presidential approval ratings. Yet, the economy has been very robust during his presidency, while his approval has been low. It would appear that the standard model which includes some measure of economic strength might not apply very well to the Trump presidency. Using Gallup data, this paper compares the determinants of weekly presidential approval for three different presidencies: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald J. Trump. The purpose is to evaluate the generalizability of the standard presidential approval model, and offer prescriptions for how the model might be improved to be more generalizable.

Author

• B. Dan Wood, Texas A&M University