Second-Hand Arms Transfers: Exploring the Drivers

• In Event: Weapons and Arms Transfers

Abstract

So far, the implicit assumption of the arms control literature is that the underlying drivers of transfers of newly produced arms and second-hand arms are the same. At the same time descriptive empirical patterns point out that, indeed the market for second-hand arms dramatically differs. The ‘usual’ suspects of relatively large volumes of ex-/imports of arms (i.e. US, Russia / India, Saudi Arabia) do not match the relatively largest volumes of second-hand arms ex-/importers (i.e. Bulgaria, the Netherlands / Guinea, Chile). What explains the large differences of second-hand arms exports as well as imports across countries?

Extant literature has identified key determinants of transnational arms transfers e.g. military expenditures of the exporter and economic prowess of the receiver but no attention has been paid so far if those same determinants have such explanatory power when analyzing transfers of second-hand arms. As such, this paper asks if the mechanisms underlying transnational arms transfers are the same as those motivating transfers of second-hand arms. I argue that additional factors have to be considered e.g. how the export of second-hand arms is not limited to the few arms producing countries and the import of second-hand arms has a by far shorter delivery time.

Based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), covering the transfers of (second-hand) major conventional weapons since 1951 I test the claim for different drivers of second-hand transfers. An examination of the effects of second-hand arms transfers indicates that traditional explanations for arms transfers are less powerful, while newly derived theoretical explanations show an impact. In light of current populist movements, I will then pay specific focus on the type of government. Theorizing that populist governments show different patterns of behavior both for ex- and import of second-hand arms I also test for such effects.

Taken together, my approach not only sheds light on a blind spot in the security studies literature by systematically theorizing second-hand arms transfers as well as testing these claims. My research also enables policy-makers to develop a more nuanced approach towards arms control. In short, this paper is of high social and scientific relevance.

Author

• Eva Ziegler, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich