Sacrificial Lambs: Female Candidates in New Democracies

• In Event: Party Behavior in Africa

Abstract

How do primaries affect women’s ability to seek and obtain office in young democracies? Candidate selection methods in which party leaders select candidates enable ethnic, regional and gender balance within a party’s slate of candidates. Mass selectorate primaries limit this possibility, since each selectorate chooses only one candidate in single-member districts. Mass selectorates also vary geographically in their social conservatism. As a result, more inclusive methods of candidate selection may both reduce the total number of female nominees and concentrate them in urban constituencies. Using an original dataset combining primary entry and general election results from five ruling parties across Africa, I show that the introduction of mass primaries is associated with an approximately ten percentage point reduction in the proportion of women nominated, and that these nominees remain less likely to win the general election than male candidates of the same party. This gap can be attributed to the sub-national geography of female nomination; mass primaries typically increase female nomination rates in electorally competitive, urban constituencies.

Author

• Shana S Warren, New York University