Examining Military Defection through a Survey of Middle Eastern Militaries

• In Event: Defender of Last Resort? Security Force (Dis)loyalty in the Face of Mass Protest

Abstract

The decision of military personnel to fire on protesters or shirk in their duties is critical to the success of a popular revolution. Several factors have been theorized to encourage military defection, such as the military's professionalism, US training, corporate interests, and composition, as well as the size and nature of the uprising. However, because military personnel are difficult to interview or survey, existing literature has not yet demonstrated that they actually think the way we theorize they do. To provide a direct test of these theories, this paper conducts a unique survey of 2000 Egyptian and Tunisian military personnel, in which they are asked whether they would fire on protesters to defend their current presidents. Peaceful protests, conscription, corporate interests, and support for democracy were more likely to engender defection, while professionalism and U.S. training had no significant impact.

Author

• Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary