Cyberattacks and Domestic Politics

• In Event: Empirical Study of Cyberspace Conflict

Abstract

Do cyberattacks have corrosive effects on public opinion? Especially in the aftermath of the 2016 American Presidential election, a common refrain has developed among both pundits and intelligence officials that foreign-sponsored cyberattacks have the potential to lead to domestic discord and corrode support for prevailing political institutions. Yet this is in stark contrast with our understanding of the effects of kinetic attacks on public opinion, which tend to produce rally around the flag effects, increased cohesion, and an uptick in support for incumbents and prevailing institutions. We combine time series analysis of cyber events with survey experiments to explore how the mass public responds to cyberattacks, and why cyber events have such different effects than their kinetic counterparts. Our findings have implications for the study of political psychology, public opinion, and cyber in international relations.

Authors

• Harry Oppenheimer, Harvard University

• Thomas Zeitzoff, American University