Does Negativity Affect Campaign Engagement? A Real Time Experiment in Campaign

• In Event: Campaigns 2 - Advertising and Online Politics

Abstract

Research strongly suggests that campaign negativity does not have a positive effect on vote share and may actually be detrimental to campaigns' success in attracting votes. So, why do campaigns continue to engage in it? One possibility is that negativity - and anger in particular - is a powerful motivator for co-partisan behavior. In this paper, we use observational data and an experimental design to test the effect of actual campaign email communications sent out during the 2018 midterm elections on the willingness of individuals in those districts to donate to the campaign, become involved in the campaign, and to learn more about the congressional candidates in the district. In this study we first collect campaign emails from candidate running for Congress in 20 congressional districts. Then using an online survey platform, we assign randomly individuals living in those districts to either read one of the messages from the congressional candidate running in their district or to a control group. We then examine the willingness of these individuals to volunteer and donate to the campaign as a result of their exposure to different types of messages. In addition, we also use observational data from 2012 and 2018 emails sent by political candidates to examine the extent to which campaigns are aware of these effects. Our results have implications for the literature on campaigns and for theories of the role of emotions in citizen mobilization and persuasion.

Authors

• Hans J.G. Hassell, Florida State University

• Christopher David Johnston, Duke University

• Jessica Parsons, Florida State University