China’s Belt and Road Initiative and U.S. Grand Strategy in Europe

• In Event: Hegemony and its Discontents

Abstract

President Trump’s erratic foreign policy and his many disagreements with European leaders (NATO, Iran, environment, trade, etc.) have made the headlines since January 2017. However, the transatlantic alliance is also exposed to a more profound shift whose consequences could be far-reaching: the rise of China’s geo-economic influence, spearheaded by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a major infrastructure plan that extends across and beyond the Eurasian continent.

This paper examines Beijing’s regional geo-economic offensive and its consequences on U.S. grand strategy in Europe. It argues that despite ambiguities, uncertainties, and setbacks, China has deftly exploited intra-European tensions (among regional states or between them and the EU) and the underlying weaknesses of the transatlantic alliance to advance its regional interests. In the long-term, this process could have major repercussions on America’s hegemony.

The paper aims to make three contributions. First, it explores BRI in Europe in the context of the U.S.-China global contest for influence. Excellent accounts explored BRI’s genesis, broad contours, or specific facets (Rolland, Le Corre, Godement) but they often eluded its grand strategic dimensions. Second, the paper stresses the role of geoeconomics. Endorsing a realist theoretical framework, most scholars of grand strategy (Posen, Art, Murray) privilege military means. My analysis builds upon their vital contributions but re-injects geoeconomics in the picture, explaining how Beijing leverages BRI and other economic instruments to acquire strategic influence and disincentivize European powers from aligning with the U.S. against China.

The paper proceeds in four sequences. First, it briefly examines the role of Europe in U.S. grand strategy since 1945. Washington built and entrenched its hegemony thanks to massive economic assistance (Marshall Plan, etc.), growing commercial ties and investments, the creation of NATO, and constant efforts to blunt the emergence of an autonomous European strategic entity. These policies helped buttress American security and prosperity, isolate the Soviet Union, strengthen U.S.-led international governance institutions, and encourage European countries to supplement Washington’s power and influence, including during the global war on terror.

The second section outlines Beijing’s grand strategic rationale. China’s interest for Europe has increased significantly in the last 15 years, due to skyrocketing commercial interdependence, technological needs, and a determination to attenuate America’s influence in Eurasia. BRI is designed to build geo-economic leverage via trade agreements and investments that prioritize energy and transportation infrastructures (ports, highways, nuclear facilities, etc.). Beijing’s ultimate goal is to consolidate its economic ascent and to reshape European states’ foreign policy preferences, disincentivizing them from high-end military cooperation with the U.S.

The third section of the paper explores the subregional and extra-regional declinations of this strategy. China uses non-E.U. members in Central and Eastern Europe to access E.U. countries and markets. It captured strategic assets and developed political influence among the European Union’s least developed members, in the east (Hungary, etc.) and along the Mediterranean façade (Greece, Portugal, etc.). In parallel, Beijing seeks to link its growing Pacific/Indian Ocean maritime pathways to southern Europe via the Suez Canal, and develops the nascent Polar Silk Road to reduce sailing times to northwestern European markets, its ultimate destination. All along, it has exploited its economic assets (cheap goods, investments, appeal of its vast national market), Europe’s economic crisis, and local populism to play regional countries against each other, and to paralyze the E.U.’s decision-making process.

The fourth section of the paper explains how these strides impact the U.S.-China grand strategic contest. American leaders still have many cards to play, including deep military, industrial, and political ties with Europe, and they can capitalize on the recent local pushback against Beijing’s economic practices: investment screening mechanism, E.U. Eurasia plan, etc. However, while the Trump Administration’s policies corrode transatlantic trust, China’s clout is growing and aggravates the alliance’s pre-existing strains: lack of a common enemy since the end of the Cold War, latent European aspirations for strategic autonomy, geographic distance, and perceptions of U.S. decline. In the long-term, these dynamics could prevent a transatlantic alignment against Beijing and have momentous consequences for America’s hegemony over Eurasia.

Author

• Thomas P. Cavanna, Tufts University