Effects of Election Campaigns on Voting Behavior: Evidence from India

• In Event: Poster Session: Comparative Politics in Developing Countries I

Abstract

Recent observations during months leading up to elections in India indicate heightened use of door-to-door campaigning, a larger number of election rallies with several thousand people in attendance, and a sharp increase in the use of social media for election campaigning. Indian political parties and their candidates spend huge sums of money on these campaign activities, making Indian elections one of the most expensive elections in the world. However, little is known about the effects of different election campaign activities on behavior of Indian voters. Often, individual candidates are surprised at district-level election results and are unable to identify which component of their and/ or their party’s campaign had the most influence on behavior of voters. This paper aims to address several questions on effects of election campaigns – including their content and their mode – on voter turnout and on vote choice, which currently remain understudied in the Indian context. The paper will present preliminary findings from a pilot study, which is designed to utilize both observational and experimental methods, and is proposed to be conducted during and after the upcoming 2019 general elections in India. First, it will examine the kinds of information which Indian political parties and their candidates convey to voters during election campaigns – for instance, whether emphasis is placed on past performance or on promises of future performance – and how this information is communicated along with specific appeals. Moreover, the paper will discuss the effects of populist campaign appeals on voter turnout and vote choice. Second, the paper will consider why Indian political parties and their candidates continue to convene mass election rallies, which are expensive to organize, when they can use new technologies and associated low-cost ways to carry out their election campaigns. Specifically, the paper will address whether the purpose of these rallies is to demonstrate the support the party already has, or to increase support among undecided voters or a combination of the two, and broadly, how successful these rallies are in meeting their objectives of influencing voter turnout and vote choice. Third, for a particular political party, the paper will present how a range of exposure levels to the party’s campaign activities and campaign materials influence the voters’ likelihood of turning out to vote and of voting for that party. Fourth, the paper will consider whether different modes of campaigning have varied effects on voting behavior of different demographic groups. For instance, how distinct are the effects of campaign materials circulated on social media on turnout and on vote choice of young voters, as compared to those of older voters; and how different are the effects of door-to-door campaigning on voter turnout and on support for a political party in denser urban electoral districts, as compared those in rural electoral districts.

Author

• Shahana Sheikh, Yale University, Political Science