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Do Economic Involvements Affect China's Political Relations with Other Countries

Thu, August 29, 3:30 to 4:00pm, Marriott, Exhibit Hall B South

Abstract

This paper aims in examining the effect of China’s economic involvements in other countries on its political relations with them. As China has risen as an international power, scholars anticipated that China would be a dominant power in the international system. China is projected to overtake the United States in overall capability in the mid-21st century. According to power transition theory, no state is able to run and maintain the international system alone; a leading systemic state needs to cooperate with other great or small powers. However, China has no alliances in the system due partly to its non-aligned policy and its different political preferences from western countries. Therefore, how can China gain support from other great and small countries in international affairs?

China has risen remarkably in its economic capability but not in its political influences in the international community. China has increased its economic activities in other countries, such as its “going global” strategy and “One Belt One Road” strategy. The Chinese government and some scholars believe that Chinese economic involvements in other countries would promote its political relations with those countries. However, there is lack of empirical examination about this proposition in the existing literature.

In order to provide a theoretical and empirical analysis about this proposition, I examine the effect of China’s economic activities on its political relations with African countries over the period of 1978-2017. For a dependent variable, I will use political event data to measure Chinese political relations with African countries. I will divide the whole period into five-year periods and count the numbers of political events between two countries in each period. I will use Chinese aid to Africa, trade relations with African countries, and its foreign direct investment to African countries as independent variables. I will average each of the indicators over each five-year period. I will provide conventional multivariate regression as well as causal inference based on counterfactuals by using propensity score matching. Then I will analyze and compare the results of two models. I will conclude this paper by some important implications for China’s rise in global order.

Much attention is paid to China’s rising in the international system but little attention is paid to how China gains its international influences. A rising economic power without international political influences is unable to shape and influence the global order. This paper aims to explore and examine how China establishes and enhances its political relations with other countries through its economic involvements. In addition, this paper provides how to measure political relations between countries.

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