Tripwires and Public Support for War: Evidence from Conjoint Experiments

• In Event: Public Opinion and War

Abstract

Scholars, analysts, and policymakers assume that military tripwires—troops stationed abroad to ensure an escalatory response to an attack on a partner—are an effective deterrent implement. Tripwires are supposed to function as “tying-hands” signals, inducing caution due to the fear that “tripping” the wire will cause domestic audiences inside the state whose forces are deployed abroad to demand retribution. Though the tripwire effect is central to contemporary American foreign policy, we know little about whether it actually operates. We investigate this question by using conjoint survey experiments. Our evidence suggests that the tripwire effect is illusory. The effect of deployed American troops within an attacked country on support for escalation is small and inconsistent. Moreover, US casualties suffered by tripwire forces during an attack have no effect. Our analysis suggests an urgent need to further explore the functioning of forward deployed military assets as tools of deterrence and reassurance.

Authors

• Steven Ward, Cornell University

• Paul Musgrave, University of Massachusetts