Do Election Crises Undermine Support for Democracy? Evidence from Kenya

• In Event: Democratic Consolidation and the Effects of Democratization in Africa

Abstract

Elections are thought to contribute to democratization in transitioning regimes. But when elections devolve into crisis, they may have the opposite effect, leading to election fatigue, or even "democratic fatigue.” Alternatively, crisis moments that put institutions to the test may lead citizens to redouble their support for democratic processes and the rule-of-law. We develop a theoretical framework generating hypotheses about the conditions under which we might expect electoral crises to influence support for democratic processes. We test these propositions with unique panel data surrounding the 2017 Kenyan election crisis, in which the Supreme Court invalidated the electoral victory of incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta and then certified his election in the subsequent re-run three months later. We surveyed a national sample of 2,468 Kenyans in October 2017 — between the two elections — and then reinterviewed a subset of 1,297 in June 2018. This unique panel data gives us leverage on how Kenyan attitudes about democratic processes and the rule-of-law changed as the election crisis evolved. We test whether ethno-partisan identities are drivers of changes in support for democratic processes, rule of law attitudes, and trust in the Supreme Court to decide issues in the future. We also test whether non-political factors like education, political interest, and knowledge influence changes. Our findings provide micro-level evidence relevant to on-going debates about elections as a mechanism of democratic consolidation in emerging democracies.

Authors

• Eric J. Kramon, George Washington University

• Jeremy Horowitz, Dartmouth College

• Brandon L. Bartels, George Washington University