Is There a Consensus about Sino-American Bipolarity?

• In Event: The End of Unipolarity?

Abstract

In this paper, I explain why I consider unipolarity to have ended in late 2014 with the rise of China as a great-power peer of the United States, and I explore whether this is a consensus view. According to Kenneth N. Waltz, “Historically, despite the difficulties [of comparison and uncertainties about where to draw the lines], one finds general agreement about who the great powers of a period are, with occasional doubts about marginal cases” (Theory of International Politics, p. 131). To determine whether there is a consensus about Sino-American bipolarity, I examine the formal statements and behavior of governments, intergovernmental organizations, and non-governmental organizations, as well as policy makers, practitioners, investors, citizens, journalists, and scholars. Finally, I test the ability of psychological theories about cognition and choice (prospect theory, affective cognition, and group think) to explain which actors acknowledge, dispute, and are silent about this major change in the structure of the international-political system.

Author

• Karen Ruth Adams, University of Montana