Information Access and the Decision to Return: Evidence from IDP Camps in Iraq

• In Event: The Politics of Migration, Refugees, and Conflict

Abstract

Existing work on population movement has focused on identifying why people leave a location, becoming internally displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees in another country. Increasing violence or economic hardship, put simply, cause people to move and seek refuge in a place that is safer or more prosperous. Little research, however, has focused on the question of return. In many contemporary conflicts, such as those in Iraq, Syria, and the Philippines, intense fighting has resulted in large-scale displacement of civilians from major cities. Before these cities can start to rebuild and revive, former inhabitants must be willing to return. What factors make it more likely that individuals who have been displaced will return? We argue that a crucial and overlooked intervening variable is the availability of information about displaced persons' area of origin. Civilians will not return unless they both believe, and have credible information that, conditions in the location of origin are conducive to return. Using a large-scale representative survey of the return intentions of displaced households in 66 IDP camps in Iraq, we test our new theory about the conditioning role of credible information, controlling for the quality of life in camps and origin locations.

Authors

• Jacob Aronson, University of Maryland, College Park

• Jonathan Hall, Uppsala University

• James Igoe Walsh, University of North Carolina, Charlotte

• Paul K. Huth, University of Maryland, College Park