Costly Innovation: Domestic Networks, Threat Inflation, and Military Offsets

• In Event: Strategic Competition and Technological Superiority

Abstract

Since the late 19th century, great powers invest in offsets, disruptive military technologies to achieve a position of advantage relative to rival states. From naval arms races in the early 20th century to a new artificial intelligence race likely to define the 21st century, these military modernization initiatives are a form of competitive strategy. Yet, how do domestic institutions and constituencies influence these initiatives? Specifically, how does worst-case biasing inherent in military planning combine with various industrial and media advocacy networks to inflate expectations about emerging technology historically? What does this process foreshadow about future investments in military offsets like autonomy, artificial intelligence and additive manufacturing? To answer these questions, this paper explores how various domestic networks advocated for the pursuit of military modernization initiatives associated with the dreadnought and strategic bombing in the United States and United Kingdom. These crucial case studies help situate the ways in which complex coalitions shape defense strategy.

Author

• Benjamin M. Jensen