Allies as Enemies: A Premeditated Theory of Intra-Alliance Fighting

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security I

Abstract

Why do countries in formal alliances engage in armed hostilities against one another? What motivates states to attack their allies? As evidenced by Italy’s betrayal of the Central Powers in World War I and the border conflict between the Soviet Union and China in 1969, countries with
formal alliances have engaged in wars and militarized disputes. This paper puts forward a new theoretical framework that links the alliance formation stage to the intra-alliance conflict stage. I argue that countries sometimes form alliances with a strong predisposition to act aggressively against a fellow allied state. The alliance is formed because it serves the immediate strategic needs and because the alliance terms and provisions can provide political and operational benefits that later facilitate the attack on the allied state or its regime. I refer to these cases as premeditated intra-alliance fighting or a strategy of premeditation. The most important predictor of premeditated attacks against allies is the presence of territorial or political revisionist goals. Revisionism, motivated by either security or greed, is a necessary but insufficient condition for premeditated attacks.

Alliances have long been recognized among the key components of state security policies. My research puts forward a new and more sinister explanation for alliance formation that has been neglected by existing scholarship. I show that alliance formation may in part be motivated by a desire to profit at ally’s expense.

Author

• Vanes Ibric, The George Washington University