External Support and Militant Signaling

• In Event: Strategies of Subversion in International Politics

Abstract

Of the 960 armed groups that operated between 1970 and 2012, 28% received external support from an outside sponsor. Why do states provide external support to some armed groups, but not others? Sponsors have unusual discretion in choosing whom to assist because there are typically multiple armed groups operating in the same country at any given time. However, domestic political incentives for an armed group to misrepresent its strength can create uncertainty about its suitability for external support. This paper develops a theory to explain how sponsors navigate this noise and why they choose to assist certain types of armed groups. It then tests these predictions on an original dataset about the organizational characteristics of 960 armed groups. This paper advances understanding about the strategic logic of external support and signaling mechanisms.

Author

• Iris Malone, Stanford University