Global Projection of Future Climate-induced Migration and Policy Implication

• In Event: Global Commitment to Addressing Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is expected to induce potentially significant human migration and displacement. Policy makers have started discussions on how to deal with the issues; however, addressing climate-induced migration and displacement in international climate talks has been difficult. With the current surge in populism and anti-migrant sentiments and weakening of global solidarity and liberal values around the world, negotiations could become even harder than in the past. What is also missing from the current debate is reliable climate-induced migration estimates. We do not know how many people will be displaced or where they will go under different climate and legal scenarios. Projections are often limited in their geographic scope and the types of climate change considered, and they lack interactions among economic activities, migrations and policies. Without a holistic global research, little concrete discussion has taken place in international climate negotiations on how to address the problem.

To facilitate international collaboration on climate-induced migration, this study estimates the impacts of (1) land losses due to sea level rises, (2) agricultural productivity changes due to variations in temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentration, (3) heat effects on labor productivity, and (4) disease impacts on human health on international migration flows and global economies. This will be the first study estimating international human migration flows, considering for wide climate change impacts and detailed interactions among various human economic activities, migrations and policies for the entire world.

The study uses a macroeconomic, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) based global migration model called GMig, which is a special version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models. GTAP is a popular CGE model often used by governmental agencies for trade analyses. GMig is also used by many to analyze impacts of immigration reforms and such. It has the ability to trace and project global migration flows associated with economic stimuli and historical patterns of migration. GTAP has over 20 years of history; work has been tested in academia with over 15,000 GTAP-users worldwide.

The four climate impacts are captured as agricultural land losses, crop yield changes, and labor productivity changes in the model. Given the climate shocks, the model solves for an economic equilibrium, considering all existing socio-economic, trade and migration conditions. Migration occurs due to changes in relative real wages, and those economic inequalities are unambiguously modelled within the model based on climate shocks. Migration flows and economic impacts are modelled simultaneously for 103 countries or regions of the world in a consistent and comparable manner, so that policy makers and researchers can assess global climate impacts holistically.

Preliminary results show very limited economic migration opportunities, as the global economic conditions deteriorate due to climate change. Only 235,000 migrant workers with family members are projected to have new jobs at destinations outside their home countries in 2050. Some studies suggest a strategic linking of environmentally vulnerable areas with countries with expected demographic deficits and labor shortages, and use migration as a form of climate change adaptation. Given climate impacts are mostly negative, however, economic migration opportunities could be very small in the future, even after accounting for demographic shrinking of some countries. Strong policy interventions beyond economic needs are likely to be necessary for migration to take place and become an effective means of adaptation.

To supplement discussions on potential migration needs, poverty measures are also calculated. Preliminary results suggest that 36 million people are expected to fall into poverty by 2050 due to deteriorating environmental and economic conditions. West Africa is identified to be particularly vulnerable to climate change with projected 6.5 million additional people sinking into poverty without having regional migration opportunities.

A fraction of those 36 million individuals who fall into poverty in their home countries might choose to migrate abroad regardless of employment opportunities at destinations. Currently, the authors are revising the model to quantify non-economic migrants who cannot be employed at destinations. The figures can be considered as forced international migration (refugee) flows due to climate change. Associated costs to host forced migrants in host countries will also be calculated. Both figures will be directly useful for the international community to critically examine coordinated actions and strategies to facilitate orderly migration and settlements, and to discuss how to share settlement costs among nations. They can also help reshape climate change policies, sustainable development agendas, migration and security policies.

Author

• Nagisa Ishinabe, Purdue University