Private and Public Diplomacy: Mixed Signals in Diplomatic Communication

• In Event: Diplomacy and Security

Abstract

Abstract: Countries engage in both private and public diplomacy on a daily basis, but current literature considers the costs and benefits of the two channels separately and rarely examines interactions between them. In this paper, I focus on the ramifications of both channels being used simultaneously. Specifically, I explore the cases where there is an inconsistency in tone across channels: states can be threatening publicly and peace-seeking privately, and vice versa. I theorize that an inconsistent diplomatic message is likely to breed mistrust among nations and lead to an increased risk of confrontation. Using a new dataset of digitized public and private diplomatic communications, I identify the inconsistent messages and measure the effect they have on the future interactions between states. I find that a contradiction between public and private communications is more likely to lead to further military escalation, compared to more consistent dialogues.

Author

• Yana Otlan, University of California, Los Angeles