Surviving the Aftermath: How Experience Affects Post-War Leadership Survival

• In Event: Rebel Leaders

Abstract

Since 1946, one in three political leaders did not manage to stay in power after a civil war. Using an actor-centric perspective, this study uncovers the puzzle why some leaders stay in power while others do not. I argue that prior military and political experience are decisive for political survival. While military experience is beneficial for asserting power in times of threats (e.g., in the immediate aftermath or coups), political experience has a greater impact, the longer the post-war incumbent stays in power. I further expect this effect to be stronger for civil wars that ended in a draw than for those that were won with a decisive victory; in the latter case, the leader is in an advantaged position as post-war compromises are minimized. I test my argument using cross-national data supplemented with biographical information on political leaders for the period between 1946 and 2004. My study presents a novel perspective to analyze the determinants of leadership survival in post-conflict scenarios and contributes to an improved understanding of political dynamics and stability in post-civil war countries.

Author

• Cosima Meyer, University of Mannheim