Presidential Elections and Majority Rule

• In Event: The Electoral College: New Theoretical and Empirical Thinking

Abstract

The Electoral College that governs America today is not the one adopted at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 but instead is the version redesigned by Thomas Jefferson’s supporters to prepare for his anticipated reelection in 1804. The significance of this Jeffersonian redesign has been lost over time, and so its relevance for contemporary Electoral College reform has been ignored.
The Jeffersonians, in transforming the Electoral College, were motivated by the principle of majority rule. Gone were the days when a president would be elected by acclamation, as George Washington had been. Instead, given the emergence of intense two-party competition between Jeffersonians and Federalists, and recognizing their ascendancy as the more popular party, the Jeffersonians wanted to make sure that the Electoral College awarded the presidency to the candidate of the majority, rather than minority, party. Also recognizing the federated nature of the United States, they envisioned their Electoral College as implementing a compound form of majority rule suitable for the chief executive of a federal republic: a candidate would win by amassing a majority of Electoral College votes secured from states where the candidate’s party was in the majority.
For most of American history the Jeffersonian system has worked as intended, producing presidents capable of achieving Electoral College victories derived from state-based majorities. In the last quarter-century, however, there have been three significant aberrations from the Jeffersonian design: 1992, 2000, and 2016. In each of these years, the Electoral College victory depended on states where the winner received only a minority of votes. This book analyzes the causes and consequences of this unparalleled departure from the original intent of the Jeffersonian Electoral College, including the increased future risk of minority-rule presidencies.
The book also explains how states, by changing their procedures for implementing the Electoral College, would restore the original Jeffersonian commitment to majority rule. There are various ways states can choose, all of which would comply with this commitment. States with ballot initiatives can employ this method to reform presidential elections, just as with redistricting reform. If only two or three states had done so before 2016, the outcome that year might have been different. Likewise, doing so before future elections can prevent another victory that, contrary to the original Jeffersonian intent, a majority of voters did not want.

Author

• Edward B. Foley, Ohio State University