A Bug in Democracy: Mythical and True Flaws in the Electoral College

• In Event: The Electoral College: New Theoretical and Empirical Thinking

Abstract

A common complaint about the electoral college is that it often does not award the presidency to the winner of the popular vote. This risk is greater than commonly appreciated, reaching as high as 1 in 3 in closely contested elections. Additional problems exist. The Electoral College is said to favor small states, but in fact it favors voters in swing states. As measured by a novel index of individual ability to influence win probability, voter power in neighboring states can differ by a factor of several thousand, in a manner that does not depend on state population. Campaign attention focuses on only a handful of states, and voter turnout in other states is lower. Finally, swing states create a security hazard, since flipping thousands or even hundreds of votes is sufficient to flip the closest elections. Any claimed advantages of the Electoral College must be weighed against these unintended bugs in American democracy.

Author

• Samuel S.-H. Wang, Princeton University