Electoral Avalanches in Latin America: México, Brazil and El Salvador (2018-2019)

• In Event: After the Tsunami: Mexico’s Last Elections in Comparative and Subnational Perspectives

Abstract

In less than a year there have been three highly unusual presidential election results in Latin America in terms of the magnitude of the margins of victory in first rounds: Andrés Manuel López Obrador obtained more than 53% of the vote in Mexico on July 1, 2018; Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil got 46% of the votes on October 7, 2018; and Nayib Bukele of El Salvador won with 53% of the votes on February 3, 2019. These results were extraordinary insofar as no prior presidential candidate achieved such an overwhelming vote throughout the democratic period of these respective political regimes. Previous similar cases in other countries were Venezuela in 1998 (Hugo Chávez won 56.2), Bolivia in 2005 (Evo Morales won 53.7%) and Ecuador in 2009 (Rafael Correa won the elections with 52%). The consequences in these three cases were the collapse of the party system in force until that date and the hegemony of a new political party. The present study makes a comparative analysis of these electoral outcomes taking into account their common variables: campaigns through social networks, public opinion turned against the traditional political class, new leaders and/or new parties, recent corruption scandals. We intend to find a comparative explanation that allows us to understand the emergence of new political actors and the configuration of a new political hegemonies in these three political regimes.

Author

• Jesus Tovar, Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Mexico