Polling Results and Voters' Perceptions

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel brings together papers that explore how reporting about electoral races and public opinion polls affects voters. At the core are individual voters that learn about public opinion polls and may be affected in their propensity to turn out or in their beliefs about likely wining chances. All papers share a deep desire to better understand how voters receive and value this information and how it affects their perception and behavior. These papers promise to increase our understanding of how information affects behavior. Messing, Lelkes, and Westwood explore how reports based on prediction models affect voters’ perceptions and their decisions to turn out or not. Krupekin and Rothschild move beyond this static world and take advantage of large amount of data on search history. They ask when and under which circumstances people are more likely to actively search for polling information. Leemann, Traunmueller, and Stoetzer build on a Bayesian model of updating and apply to voters receiving information through published polls. They show how voters update their beliefs but how they systematically deviate from the theoretical baseline model. Finally, Madson and Hillygus explore how the public perceives polls and polling credibility. All four papers are analyzing how polls affect the political process by focussing on individual voters as the unit of analysis.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 36: Elections and Voting Behavior

Chair

• Lukas Frederik Stoetzer University of Zurich

Discussants

• Elizabeth Suhay Government, American University

• Benjamin Toff University of Minnesota

Individual Presentations

• What Election Forecasts Mean for Electoral Competition and Voter Turnout - Solomon Messing, Facebook; Yphtach Lelkes, University of Pennsylvania; Sean Westwood, Dartmouth College

• Poll Results as Political Facts? Assessing Public Opinion of Polling Credibility - Gabriel Madson, Duke University; Sunshine Hillygus, Duke University

• Learning From Polls - Lucas Leemann, University of Zurich; Richard Traunmuller, Goethe University Frankfurt; Lukas Frederik Stoetzer, University of Zurich

• Horserace Coverage and Search - Masha T Krupenkin, Boston College; David Rothschild