Terrorist Group Decision-Making: Trends in Tactics, Rhetoric and Exit

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

To what extent will the use of cyber-attacks by terrorist groups increase? How does the presence of foreign fighters shape terrorist behavior and operations? How and under what conditions do extremist groups deploy violent rhetoric? How do extremists deradicalize? This collection of papers explores decision-making by terrorists and terrorist groups across these four arenas. Understanding the factors shape a militant group’s decision to adopt particular tactics, mount a specific type of operation, or deploy violent rhetoric is critical to the design of effective counter-terrorism policy at the group level, while recognizing how the process of deradicalization works is imperative for developing effective counter-terrorism programs at the individual level.

The first two papers address terrorist group decision-making regarding tactics and strategy. Drawing on qualitative open source materials, Jordan’s paper builds policy-relevant theory to explain why cyber-attacks by terrorist groups are likely to increase and may eventually supplant violence as a way to leverage influence and compel or deter adversaries. Utilizing a quantitative approach, Milton and Bacon will illustrate how the presence of foreign fighters in a conflict increases the lethality, frequency and geographic reach of terrorist attacks. The third paper explores Islamist extremist decision-making on issues of rhetoric. Matesan’s paper uses process tracing to analyze the conditions under which al-Gama’a al-Islamiyaa escalated its violent rhetoric. Finally, Chernov Hwang and Kenney’s paper shifts the focus from the group to the individual level to highlight the processes via which activists deradicalize. Drawing on original fieldwork, including 129 interviews with British and Indonesian Islamist extremists, this paper highlights how militants revise previously held views on the use of violence and relationships with individuals in the larger society.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 19: International Security

Individual Presentations

• Nonstate Actors and Cyber Coercion - Jenna Jordan, Georgia Institute of Technology

• The Impact of Foreign Fighters on Terrorist Group Behavior - Daniel Milton, United States Military Academy; Tricia Bacon, American University

• Guns, Slogans and Violent Escalation - Ioana Emy Matesan, Wesleyan University

• How British and Indonesian Extremists Deradicalize - Julie Chernov Hwang, Goucher College; Michael Kenney, University of Pittsburgh

Chair

• Victor Asal University at Albany, SUNY

Discussant

• Victor Asal University at Albany, SUNY