Wargaming and Experimental Methods

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel application is a continuation of an exploratory workshop led by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider and sponsored by the division during the 2018 APSA Annual Conference. In this panel, we examine the potential of “wargames as experiments” to provide a new method of inquiry for international relations research. The panel explores a variety of wargaming methods including table-top exercises, scenario-based discussions involving policy-making elites, the use of archival material, and online games and reflects on the potential of these respective settings for research alongside existing survey experiment, game theoretic, and computer-based modeling tools.
The goal of the panel is to both introduce and refine the methodological tools associated with wargaming, evaluate existing efforts by scholars to address pressing international security challenges, and to examine the linkages between experimental wargaming and theoretical questions that might be addressed by this new method. The panel addresses a number of substantive topics including cyber warfare, missile defense, and nuclear weapons use.
In the proposed abstracts, Barzashka discusses the role of wargames for theory development using a series of wargames carried out at the UK Defence Academy over the past two years concerning the salience of missile defense during crises. Pauly assesses the potential and limitations of using archival wargaming material as data for analysis—paying particular attention to the social aspects of participant behavior and its effect on game outcomes.
In an assessment of existing experiment wargaming methods, Schneider’s paper focuses on variation in methods used for data collection in contemporary wargames and examines how they influence game design and conclusions. Pettyjohn discusses the appropriate criteria with which to evaluate the empirical potential of specific wargame designs.
Finally, Reddie’s paper revisits recent empirical findings concerning the utilitarian calculus associated with nuclear use derived from survey experiments using data from the Project on Nuclear Gaming’s SIGNAL game.
Taken together, these papers examine the types of questions that can be answered using experimental gaming techniques, the theoretical contributions that the method can make to the existing literature, and the methodological refinements that can be used to establish best practices and improve game design in this nascent discipline within international security research.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 19: International Security

Individual Presentations

• Wargaming as a Tool for Theory Development: Missile Defense and Nuclear Risk - Ivanka Barzashka, King's College, London

• The Promise and Pitfalls of Wargames: Differentiating Good from Bad Games - Stacie Pettyjohn, RAND Corporation

• Experimental Gaming at the Nuclear Threshold: Demographics and Nuclear Use - Andrew William Reddie, University of California, Berkeley; Reid Pauly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Data Collection and War Gaming - Jacquelyn Schneider, Naval War College

Chair

• Rose McDermott Brown University

Discussants

• Joshua D. Kertzer Harvard University

• Rachel M. Stein George Washington University