The Political Economy of Internal Conflict

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Economics and conflict are inextricably related. That some connection exists has been common knowledge among scholars for centuries. However, the bond between these two concepts goes much deeper than the oft-stated claim that trade and wealth are pathways to peace, and so much remains unknown, particularly with respect to civil war and terrorism. This panel advances our understanding of the interplay between economics and domestic conflict, by tracing the different stages of intrastate conflict. The four papers work together to evaluate the economic causes or consequences that exist in each phase. We begin with Casey Crisman-Cox, who looks at pre-war crisis bargaining. His paper studies the relationship between politics, market systems, and resolve, in order to explain why certain countries may appear less resolved when negotiating with rebel groups, placing them at a disadvantage. Moving to the conflict stage, Olga Chyzh examines the predictability of terrorist attacks by looking at organizations' funding sources, and testing the relationship between attacks and weather conditions for groups that rely on narco-trafficking. She finds evidence that the frequency of attacks waxes and wanes as crop conditions change. Tyson Chatagnier and Kerim Can Kavakli tackle the question of civil war termination. They theorize about how conflicts might be resolved by examining the composition of a state's trading portfolio and its interaction with the location of civil war battles. They argue that conflicts are more likely to be resolved when fighting occurs in areas corresponding to a country's key exports. Finally, Scott Gates, Håvard Nygård, and Håvard Strand look at what happens as a result of a civil war, using quasi-experimental methods to examine the consequences of internal conflict on economic growth and development.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 21: Conflict Processes

Individual Presentations

• Reputation for Resolve, and Civil Conflict - Casey Crisman-Cox, Texas A&M University

• Spend 'Em If You Got 'Em: Terrorist Attack Timing and Funding Consistency - Olga Chyzh, Iowa State University

• Insurgents' Power to Hurt and Civil War Duration - Tyson Chatagnier, University of Houston; Kerim Can Kavakli, Bocconi University

• The Effect of Armed Conflict on Sustainable Development Goals - Scott Gates, PRIO and University of Oslo; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); Håvard Strand, PRIO

Chair

• Burcu Savun University of Pittsburgh

Discussants

• Seden Akcinaroglu Binghamton University

• Martin C. Steinwand University of Essex